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ABSTRACT Climate warming is expected to substantially impact the global landscape of mosquito‐borne disease, but these impacts will vary across disease systems and regions. Understanding which diseases, and where within their distributions, these impacts are most likely to occur is critical for preparing public health interventions. While research has centered on potential warming‐driven expansions in vector transmission, less is known about the potential for vectors to experience warming‐driven stress or even local extirpations. In conservation biology, species risk from climate warming is often quantified through vulnerability indices such as thermal safety margins—the difference between an organism's upper thermal limit and its habitat temperature. Here, we estimated thermal safety margins for 8 mosquito species that are the vectors of malaria, dengue, chikungunya, Zika, West Nile and other major arboviruses, across their known ranges to investigate which mosquitoes and regions are most and least vulnerable to climate warming. We find that several of the most medically important mosquito vector species, includingAe. aegyptiandAn. gambiae, have positive thermal safety margins across the majority of their ranges when realistic assumptions of mosquito behavioral thermoregulation are incorporated. On average, the lowest climate vulnerability, in terms of both the magnitude and duration of thermal safety, was just south of the equator and at northern temperate range edges, and the highest climate vulnerability was in the subtropics. Mosquitoes living in regions including the Middle East, the western Sahara, and southeastern Australia, which are largely comprised of desert and xeric shrubland biomes, have the highest climate vulnerability across vector species. 

Abstract Variation in heat tolerance among populations can determine whether a species is able to cope with ongoing climate change. Such variation may be especially important for ectotherms whose body temperatures, and consequently, physiological processes, are regulated by external conditions.Additionally, differences in body size are often associated with latitudinal clines, thought to be driven by climate gradients. While studies have begun to explore variation in body size and heat tolerance within species, our understanding of these patterns across large spatial scales, particularly regarding the roles of plasticity and genetic differences, remains incomplete.Here, we examine body size, as measured by wing length, and thermal tolerance, as measured by the time to immobilisation at high temperatures (“thermal knockdown”), in populations of the mosquitoAedes sierrensiscollected from across a large latitudinal climate gradient spanning 1300 km (34–44° N).We find that mosquitoes collected from lower latitudes and warmer climates were more tolerant of high temperatures than those collected from higher latitudes and colder climates. Moreover, body size increased with latitude and decreased with temperature, a pattern consistent with James' rule, which appears to be a result of plasticity rather than genetic variation.Our results suggest that warmer environments produce smaller and more thermally tolerant populations. 

ABSTRACT Predicting the effects of climate change on plant disease is critical for protecting ecosystems and food production. Here, we show how disease pressure responds to short‐term weather, historical climate and weather anomalies by compiling a global database (4339 plant–disease populations) of disease prevalence in both agricultural and wild plant systems. We hypothesised that weather and climate would play a larger role in disease in wild versus agricultural plant populations, which the results supported. In wild systems, disease prevalence peaked when the temperature was 2.7°C warmer than the historical average for the same time of year. We also found evidence of a negative interactive effect between weather anomalies and climate in wild systems, consistent with the idea that climate maladaptation can be an important driver of disease outbreaks. Temperature and precipitation had relatively little explanatory power in agricultural systems, though we observed a significant positive effect of current temperature. These results indicate that disease pressure in wild plants is sensitive to nonlinear effects of weather, weather anomalies and their interaction with historical climate. In contrast, warmer temperatures drove risks for agricultural plant disease outbreaks within the temperature range examined regardless of historical climate, suggesting vulnerability to ongoing climate change. 

Abstract Vector‐borne diseases (VBDs) are embedded within complex socio‐ecological systems. While research has traditionally focused on the direct effects of VBDs on human morbidity and mortality, it is increasingly clear that their impacts are much more pervasive. VBDs are dynamically linked to feedbacks between environmental conditions, vector ecology, disease burden, and societal responses that drive transmission. As a result, VBDs have had profound influence on human history. Mechanisms include: (1) killing or debilitating large numbers of people, with demographic and population‐level impacts; (2) differentially affecting populations based on prior history of disease exposure, immunity, and resistance; (3) being weaponised to promote or justify hierarchies of power, colonialism, racism, classism and sexism; (4) catalysing changes in ideas, institutions, infrastructure, technologies and social practices in efforts to control disease outbreaks; and (5) changing human relationships with the land and environment. We use historical and archaeological evidence interpreted through an ecological lens to illustrate how VBDs have shaped society and culture, focusing on case studies from four pertinent VBDs: plague, malaria, yellow fever and trypanosomiasis. By comparing across diseases, time periods and geographies, we highlight the enormous scope and variety of mechanisms by which VBDs have influenced human history.